What is the economic outlook for emerging markets in 2024?
Emerging market earnings growth is expected to accelerate to 18% in the year ahead, driven by South Korea and Taiwan. This represents a sharp recovery from the contraction in 2023.
A third consecutive monthly acceleration in global output growth was supported by faster emerging market expansion while developed markets also returned to growth for the first time in six months.
For now at least, analysts are anticipating S&P 500 earnings growth will continue to accelerate in the first half of 2024. Analysts project S&P 500 earnings will grow 3.9% year-over-year in the first quarter and another 9% in the second quarter.
However, the projected change in real GDP for 2024 was 2.1% in the March projection, up from 1.4% in December. Core PCE inflation projections also ticked up, to 2.6% from 2.4%.
"Some traders predict a flat or down market in the first half of 2024 due to high inflation, recession fears and rate hikes from the Fed. However, others foresee a bull market continuing, citing potential Fed rate cuts, earnings growth and historical trends around election years."
Important information: The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up, so you may get back less than you invest. Emerging markets have underperformed their developed counterparts for around a decade, with the trend continuing in 2023 despite the robust economic growth1.
After a spectacular 2023, stocks are off to the races again in 2024. YTD, the Dow is up 2.72%, the S&P is up 7.28%, and the Nasdaq is up 6.41%. (And that's on top of last year's 13.7%, 24.2%, and 43.4% respectively.)
The S&P 500 still has 30% upside between now and the end of 2025, according to Capital Economics. "Our end-2025 forecast of 6,500 for the index is premised on its valuation reaching a similar level to its peak during the dot com mania," Capital Economics said.
Highlights: Nominal median U.S. equity market return of 4.2% to 6.2% during the next decade; 4.8%–5.8% median expected return for U.S. fixed income (as of Sept. 30, 2023). Vanguard's latest U.S. equity market return forecast is a touch below where it was a year ago. (The firm presents its forecasts in a range.)
A mild recession could hit the U.S. in the first half of 2024, Deutsche Bank analysts said in a new global outlook Monday, pointing toward softening economic data. The lagged impact of interest-rate hikes will trigger a recession, though it won't be a severe one, they said.
Will there be a recession in 2024 or 2025?
WASHINGTON, DC – Economic growth remains likely to decelerate and ultimately result in a mild recession in 2024, followed by a return to growth in 2025, according to the November 2023 commentary from the Fannie Mae (FNMA/OTCQB) Economic and Strategic Research (ESR) Group.
%, year-on-year. Source: OECD Economic Outlook, Interim Report February 2024. Growth in the United States is projected at 2.1% in 2024 and 1.7% in 2025, helped by consumers continuing to spend savings built up during the COVID-19 pandemic and easier financial conditions.
Experts with the Motley Fool suggest allocating an even higher percentage to stocks until at least age 50 since 50-year-olds still have more than a decade until retirement to ride out any market volatility.
It can be nerve-wracking to watch your portfolio consistently drop during bear market periods. After all, nobody likes losing money; that goes against the whole purpose of investing. However, pulling your money out of the stock market during down periods can often do more harm than good in the long term.
Capital Economics chief market economist John Higgins predicts the S&P 500 can hit 6,500 by the end of 2025. This outlook is more dependent on the current AI-fueled bubble growing. For now, he maintains the bubble-like trade in the market can bring the benchmark average to 6,500 by the end of 2025.
Based on current market conditions, we believe the best markets to invest in right now are emerging markets like India, Brazil, and Saudi Arabia, and Bitcoin. Below, we'll explore what's driving each of these markets and what makes them such strong opportunities for investment.
| ETF | Expense ratio |
|---|---|
| Global X MSCI Argentina ETF (ARGT) | 0.59% |
| Global X MSCI China Consumer Discretionary ETF (CHIQ) | 0.65% |
| Franklin FTSE Taiwan ETF (FLTW) | 0.19% |
| Franklin FTSE India ETF (FLIN) | 0.19% |
| Period | Average annualised return | Total return |
|---|---|---|
| Last year | 8.8% | 8.8% |
| Last 5 years | 4.2% | 23.0% |
| Last 10 years | 6.2% | 83.2% |
| Last 20 years | 7.8% | 346.1% |
Key Takeaways. Potential economic obstacles in 2024 could delay the start of a sustained bull market, but investors can still find opportunities. Consider staying cautious on U.S. stocks while shifting to bonds for potential income and capital gains.
Economic growth actually accelerated above its 10-year average in 2023. That resilience, coupled with a fascination about artificial intelligence (AI), changed investors' collective mood. The S&P 500 soared throughout the year and finally reached a new high in January 2024, making the new bull market official.
Will 2024 be a bull run?
Bitcoin Halving appears to be fueling the next bull run to happen in 2024. Investing in the best altcoins can be rewarding as they offer diversification and potentially higher returns. However, it is important to approach the altcoin landscape with caution and do a thorough research.
Here's the Growth Stock to Buy Right Now. The Nasdaq-100 technology index plunged into a bear market in 2022 on the back of a 33% loss for the year.
| Month | Minimum | Maximum |
|---|---|---|
| January | 33,010 | 37,224 |
| February | 32,845 | 37,039 |
| March | 31,203 | 35,187 |
| April | 32,631 | 36,797 |
Many analysts believe that the NASDAQ should continue to grow over the next 5 years. But that does not mean that we don't see a deeper correction along the way. The sell-off during 2022 and 2023 has been a bit of destruction, but when you look at the longer-term chart, we have been in an uptrend for decades.
2024 may be a good time to look for bargains in international stocks that have the long-term potential to deliver higher returns than US stocks. Fidelity's Asset Allocation Research Team (AART) forecasts that international stocks will outperform US stocks over the next 20 years.
